Why Most Forecasts are Poor and How They Can Be Better

How do forecasts go awry?

The value of a forecast is that it provides practical answers, and while everyone knows they need to make predictions, decision makers are often unaware of how easily they go awry.

• Ambiguity: not saying clearly what events are being forecasted or how likely we think they are.
• Irrelevance: not offering forecasts that address the organization’s informational needs.
• Immodesty: not admitting the limits of our knowledge.
• Impoverishment: not addressing the broader context within which forecasts and decisions are made.