Why Most Forecasts are Poor and How They Can Be Better
Discover the top ten rules for generating more accurate forecasts that should be used in every organization.Download Whitepaper
How do forecasts go awry?
The value of a forecast is that it provides practical answers, and while everyone knows they need to make predictions, decision makers are often unaware of how easily they go awry.
- Ambiguity: not saying clearly what events are being forecasted or how likely we think they are.
- Irrelevance: not offering forecasts that address the organization’s informational needs.
- Immodesty: not admitting the limits of our knowledge.
- Impoverishment: not addressing the broader context within which forecasts and decisions are made.